### Risk Simulation and Queuing

# Risk Simulation and Queuing

# taught by Cliff Ragsdale

Aim of Course:

This online course, "Risk Simulation and Queuing" covers three important modeling techniques. Students will learn how to construct and implement simulation models to model (1) the uncertainty in decision input variables (e.g. price, demand, etc.), so that the overall estimate of interest from a model can be supplemented by a risk interval of possible other outcomes (risk simulation), and (2) the variability in arrivals over time (customers, cars at a toll plaza, data packets, etc.) and ensuing queues (queuing theory). Students will also learn how to employ decision trees to incorporate information derived from models to actually make optimal decisions. Students will use spreadsheet-based software to specify and implement models.

This course may be taken individually (one-off) or as part of a certificate program.

Course Program:

## WEEK 1: Risk Analysis

- Simulation
- Interpreting output
- Implementing & optimizing the model

## WEEK 2: Advanced Simulation

- Poisson distribution, arrival rate
- Service rate
- Operating characteristics

## WEEK 3: Queuing

- Mastering complexity
- Payoff matrix
- Decision rules
- Expected monetary value
- Expected regret
- Expected value of information
- Decision trees

## WEEK 4: Multistage Decision Problems

- Risk profile
- Sensitivity analysis
- Tornado charts
- Using sample information
- Conditional probabilities
- Utility functions

HOMEWORK:

Homework in this course consists of short answer questions to test concepts and guided data analysis problems using software.

# Risk Simulation and Queuing

Who Should Take This Course:

Risk managers, financial analysts, project managers, operations managers, and others with responsibility for specifying, creating, deploying or interpreting risk analysis and queuing models. Users of risk analysis or queuing software who need to attain a more solid grounding in the subject.

Level:

Introductory

- Facility with spreadsheet operations

Organization of the Course:

This course takes place online at the Institute for 4 weeks. During each course week, you participate at times of your own choosing - there are no set times when you must be online. Course participants will be given access to a private discussion board. In class discussions led by the instructor, you can post questions, seek clarification, and interact with your fellow students and the instructor.

At the beginning of each week, you receive the relevant material, in addition to answers to exercises from the previous session. During the week, you are expected to go over the course materials, work through exercises, and submit answers. Discussion among participants is encouraged. The instructor will provide answers and comments, and at the end of the week, you will receive individual feedback on your homework answers.

Time Requirement:

About 15 hours per week, at times of your choosing.

Credit:

Students come to the Institute for a variety of reasons. As you begin the course, you will be asked to specify your category:

- You may be interested only in learning the material presented, and not be concerned with grades or a record of completion.
- You may be enrolled in PASS (Programs in Analytics and Statistical Studies) that requires demonstration of proficiency in the subject, in which case your work will be assessed for a grade.
- You may require a "Record of Course Completion," along with professional development credit in the form of Continuing Education Units (CEU's). For those successfully completing the course, CEU's and a record of course completion will be issued by The Institute, upon request.

Course Text:

*Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis*, Seventh edition by Cliff Ragsdale. This text is also used in Optimization: Linear Programming and Integer & Nonlinear Programming and Network Flow.

We'll buy your book for you if you register for two or more of the above courses at the same time - actually, we'll credit the value ($279) against your second course, just request a promo code here to use during registration (may not be combined with other discounts).

Note: It is important to get the *seventh *edition of the text; earlier editions do not contain correct assignments.

This book is also available on a per-chapter basis; the chapters used in this course are 12, 13, and 14.

Software:

The course uses Analytic Solver Platform for Education software by Frontline systems. Analytic Solver Platform for Education is an add-in for Excel that performs risk analysis, simulation, optimization, decision trees and other analytical methods. With the purchase or rental of the book, you will have a course code that will enable you to download and install the software for 140 days. If you do not have such a license, a license is also available for course registrants through Statistics.com. Please do not install the regular public trial copy of the software on your own; when the course starts we will provide you with the complete installation instructions to obtain the appropriate copy of the software.

# Risk Simulation and Queuing

May 05, 2017 to June 02, 2017November 17, 2017 to December 15, 2017May 04, 2018 to June 01, 2018November 16, 2018 to December 14, 2018